Abstract:
The aim of this study was to assess the extent of market integration and temporal price behaviors of the Sorghum Sudan.
The study was based on monthly wholesale prices of sorghum in eight market localities namely Gedarif, Omdurman, Kosti, Alobeid, Kadugly, Damazin, Elfashir and Nyala during the period from January 1993 to December 2004.
Two analytical approaches were used: first, the spatial analysis to test for the market integration through the use of the correlation analysis and the modified version of Ravallion’s regression analysis co integration procedure method. Second, temporal analysis to defect the extent of fluctuation of the monthly prices and seasonal patterns of sorghum in the Sudan.
The spatial analysis of the sample correlation, supported by the under spectrum analysis of the regression analysis found:
First, Nyala market was separate in the model gut integrated only with market ElObeid market science Nyala was the most remote market in the study. The other markets have been connected with each other showing different levels of co integration.
Second demand was more important than supply in determent and driving sorghum prices.
The temporal analysis for Gedarif, Damazin, Omdurman and Elobeid showed that:
First the instability of prices measured by the coefficient of variation were lower in Omdurman and Elobeid (the demand markets) than in Gedarif and Damazin (the supply markets)
Second, the grand seasonal indices were pronounced but unstable and their fluctuation measure had been erratic and unpredictable as depicted by the standard deviation.
Third, the lowest prices of sorghum tended to prevail during harvest months, with minimum market uncertainly as information on the market condition was readily available.
