Abstract:
Prediction and simulation of the trajectory and weathering of marine oil spills are essential to the development of pollution response and contingency plans, and the evaluation of environmental impact assessments. In this study, SL Ross Trajectory and fate modeling was applied to identify the shortest time for oil to reach Bashayer Red Sea shoreline in order to model the worst case scenarios. Four different scenarios were tested out, two for winter and two for summer. Results showed that in winter the spill movement is towards south and southwest while it moves to the northwest in summer. In both cases the spill will contact Bashayer Marine Terminal (BMT) shoreline within 4 hours in winter and 6 hours in summer rely on the combined effect of wind and tidal current. It was also shown that between 47.7 to 64% of the oil remain on the surface after 10 hours of spill.
