Abstract:
This study was attempted to assess the degree of market integration and see fluctuations in prices during the season and adopted in the study on the geographically real prices for the groundnut in the three areas are Khartoum, Elobeid and Um Rawaba during the period from January 2001 to December 2010 and used two ways for analysis: First, temporal analysis: Use the test price volatility index monthly and seasonal price analysis through the coefficient of variation and analysis of prices of different components. Second, spatial analysis: Use the test market integration through the discussion of two methods are regression analysis (method of co-integration) Johansen approach with back to the foundations and theories developed by Granger. Study of temporal analysis in the real price of the markets (Khartoum, Elobeid and Um Ruwaba) showed the following results: - Less price fluctuations in production areas (Elobeid and Um Ruwaba) unlike the consumer market (Khartoum). - Analysis of the various components of the price index showed the general trend of seasonal and clear and regular and irregular price fluctuations can be expected and explained this by the standard deviation for the months of the year. - lower prices prevail for the Groundnut crop during the months of harvest, where it has the lowest degree of market risk and the relative stability is attributed to the availability of information on the status and movement of the market.
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Spatial analysis showed the following results: Showed a correlation coefficient close to the results from the results of the regression, but regression analysis showed a wider range of the following results: - The Khartoum market (deficit market) integrated with the rest of the other markets which is Elobeid and Um Rawaba (surplus markets) in order to ease the migration from production areas to consumption areas to provide paved roads and the short distance between markets. - The sources of supply and demand in all areas, which led to the close integration of markets with each other, because the production areas (Elobeid and Um Rawaba) are also consuming areas of the oils, which helped to stabilize prices, according to the results
