AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND INSTABILITY

Abstract

The productivity of most of the agricultural crops in Sudan are low and heavily fluctuating throughout the years. The spatial variations in productivity have been an important dimension of the spectacular growth in Sudan agriculture caused by differences in agro-climatic situations, level of infrastructural facilities and inherent socio-economic characteristics of different regions of the country. Besides, the instability in farm output has also been an important aspect of agricultural growth over time. The fluctuations in agricultural production disturb the rhythm and mutual balances among many interdependent processes in the economy. There has been a dearth on studies dealing with growth and instability in agriculture in Sudan. Hence, the present study was undertaken to analyze the growth and instability in agricultural production along with the contributory factors affecting growth and instability of agricultural production during Post-Prices Liberalization policy. The study is primarily focussed on the sub-irrigated sector (Gezira, New Halfa and Rahad Agricultural Corporations). The study covers the Pre-Prices Liberalization Policy Period,i.e. 1977/78 to 1991/92 and the Post-Prices Liberalization Policy Period. Analysis is based on secondary data on area, production and productivity of principal crops. An effort has been made to present the data in different tables for drawing conclusions, however, various suitable statistical tools were also used to sharpen the relevant conclusions. Some results have been obtained by using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) and Excel. Results of decomposition of variance of production have been obtained by developing a computer algorithm. It may be concluded that there has been a substantial increase in the production of sorghum in the three Agric. Schemes. The increase in sorghum production was mainly due to the cultivation of high yield varieties. The decline in cotton growth rates production in the three Agric. Schemes was due to the government policies which were discouraging cotton production .The applied policies were taxing the crop at fluctuating high rates, besides, the input subsidies were far below taxation rates. The policies packages adopted were disfavouring cotton producers and unsuccessful to provide them with tangible incentives. In the recent years there was an increasing trend in cotton production due to the change in government policies which were incentive to cotton producers. The decline in wheat growth rates was due to the decrease in area, which was attributed to financial and irrigation problems. The decline in growth rates of groundnuts production was due to the high costs of production and low price output. In New Halfa, wide spread of Messkeet trees on water canals bank and tenancies restricted many cultural practices, which in turn affected the productivity of most crops in the Scheme. It is also worth pointing out that the instability in area and productivity of almost all crops move in the same direction and their increasing/decreasing trend resulted in increase/decrease in instability. Hence, it may be said that the increase in production of a particular crop due to a spectacular increase in area and productivity would accompany the increase in instability also, but an increase in production largely due to the increase in productivity would help declining production instability. Results of studying relationship between growth and instability indicated that the increase in production mainly due to an increase in productivity had positive relationship but the increase in production due to an increase in area and productivity had negative relationship between growth and instability in production of a particular crop. Hence, it may be said that stability in agricultural production may be achieved by increasing productivity without a decline in area in a particular crop. It could also be achieved by making investment in agricultural research and keeping favourable agricultural price policy. Results obtained from decomposition of variance of production indicated that the change in the base (mean area and mean yield), yield variability and simultaneous changes in area and yield led to increase in the absolute production instability (variance). Individually, yield variability was an important source of instability in most of the crops. The changes in yield might have caused the changes in area and this led to higher area-yield covariability. The larger contribution of interaction terms indicates that the simultaneous changes in area and yield further accentuated the production instability. It may be concluded that the interplay of agroclimatic factors and new technology led to increased production instability in Sudan and prices policy can be held partially responsible for this. In the coming years when the scope for growth in production due to area expansion is exhausted and growth in yield is the only source left, production instability may further accentuate due to yield variability. Hence, this needs immediate attention of policy makers and research workers. In the long run, yield instability could be reduced by investing in maintenance research and concentrating on decentralized research programmes directed towards the evolving of cultivars which are resistant to yield reducers and suitable to particular agroclimatic conditions. These policies coupled with resource endowment programmes like creation of irrigation facilities, assured input supply would lead to growth in yield with stability.