Abstract:
The construction industry has a significant role in the economy of many countries, In U.S.A it contributes to about (8.3%) to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in Sudan it contributes to about (4.7%) to the GDP (Annual Report of Sudan Central Bank, 2003). The industry in Sudan suffers from many problems especially in those projects related to the infrastructural development. The industry undergoes many risks and uncertainties which usually lead to failure in attaining projects scope, time and cost. Sudanese infrastructure construction industry in particular were noticed to suffer from shortages in applying the widely used approaches to identify and assess risks or reduce their impact or any uncertainties that may face these projects.
This research aims at understanding how risk management is practiced in the Sudanese construction industry and to assess the appropriateness of its application in improving project performance. Within this context, the main objective of the study is to assess the level of risks in Sudanese infrastructure projects.
To achieve this objective an extensive overview of the most commonly used risk identification / assessment approaches was conducted. That was then followed by a case study where an infrastructure project was considered and the data was collected via interview techniques. To assess the project risks two techniques were used, the first one calculates risk scores depending on likelihood of their occurrence and severity (probability and impact), the second technique used the concept of simulation, and in particular Monte Carlo simulation. In the later simulation software at RISK is used to process and analyze the collected data.
The results showed that Sudanese infrastructure construction projects surrounded with different levels of risks. The most serious of which are time, inflation and material price instability. The results have also shown increase in the total cost of the project by about (9.6%) from the first estimated cost.
It has also been found that there are many parameters which prevent the application of risk assessment in Sudanese infrastructure projects these include lack of reliable data and sound managerial experience in this field.
To revert these negative aspects the study recommended that the concerned authorities in Sudan have to develop risk management training programs for project managers to improve their ability to identify and assess risks associated with these projects. It also important to create and develop system of information within projects that focus mainly on project's risk aspects.
