FACTORS THAT CAUSE ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS AND CASUALTIES IN THE GEZIRA STATE (2005 – 2006)

Abstract

This study attempts to determine the factors (predictors of casualty) that increase the likelihood of RTA casualty (dependent). Data pertaining to the different driver, vehicle, road, environment related characteristics (predictors of casualty) and injury outcomes (casualty) of each RTA victim is collected from all RTAs occurred in the Gazera State from first of January 2005 to thirsty first of December 2006. The source of this data is the road traffic information forms (these forms filled by doctors and police) which available in the police administration and documents of Gezira State court registry. Data entry and analysis is performed by using SPSS package. The study analysis employed: 1. Descriptive statistics: To estimate the inequalities in risk of being involved in RTI. 2. Fitting a multiple logistic regression model: To examine the independent association of each casualty and the explanatory variables and to determine the associations between the probability of casualty and all contributory factors. Verification of the goodness-of-fit of the model is conducted. The odds ratio and the end point of a 95% CI for each covariate were calculated.

The Study Hypothesis: 1. Driver's errors particularly negligence, distraction, inattentive, sleepiness, drowsiness, excessive speeding do not represent the main contributing factors of casualty. 2. RTA of two wheels (bicycle, motorcycle) and three wheels (Ragsha) vehicles decrease the likelihood of the occupant's casualty. 3. Vehicles' occupants involved in RTAs occurred on two-way divided and one -way roads are more prone to injury and death than those occurred on two-way not divided roads. Results: 1-The logistic regression results showed a significant interaction between the predictor variables in the model and they meet the study hypothesis as follows: a) Driver's error particularly negligence, distraction, inattentive, sleepiness, drowsiness, excessive speeding are the main contributing factors of casualty. b) RTA of two wheels (bicycle) and three wheels (Ragsha) vehicles increase the likelihood of the occupant's casualty. c) Vehicles' occupants involved in RTAs occurred on two-way not divided roads are more prone to injury than those occurred on two-way divided and one -way roads. 2- The results of descriptive estimation regarding the inequalities in risk of RTI shows that the year 2006 witnessed an increase in casualties, mortality rates and injury rate compared to 2005. The study summarized the limitations and defectiveness of the RTA registration and urges the need for more developed motor vehicle crash databases. Beside RTA registry, a National Road Safety Council is strongly recommended.