An Experimental Study for Correlations of Cancer with Environmental Factors in Sudan (1995-2013)

Abstract

Background : Cancer is a major health issue and one of the most common diseases in the World. In Sudan, according to hospitals reports, cancer was the third leading cause of death, and accounts for 5% of all death cases in Sudan. Objective of this study: To study the correlation between cancer incidences and environmental factors in Sudan country, from 1995-2013. Methodology: In this experimental study design we are using statistics for bladder, brain, prostate, breast and leukemia cancer cases, analyzing data from 2010-2013. As environmental factors we hypothesize to have an impact of the agricultural density, location of communication towers, and the population census given for 1998-2013. All data is analyzed using the software packages QGIS version 2.12.3 , SPSS version 20 and R version 3.2.3. For data analysis we introduce Heatmap Analysis, Spatial Analysis Techniques, and Correlation and Regression Statistical Analysis .For the probability P we assume values of ≤ 0.05 to be statistically significant, what means the statistical level of confidence is 95%. Results and Conclusions: The study got the following results: Dongola county in Northern state has a high Bladder cancer incidence rate (0.003444821),and Karari county in Khartoum state has high Breast (0.046873169), Leukemia (0.015023452), Brain(0.006009381),Prostate(0.015323921) cancer incidences rates. All states have a significant strong positive correlation between population and cancer incidences except Algadarif state, which has a significant weak positive correlation figure. Furthermore, we found out a significant weak (negative) association between Agriculture density and Bladder cancer (rs =-0.160,p – value = .003) and Prostate cancer (rs =-0.190,p – value = .001). In addition, a significant weak (positive) association between communication towers density and Breast cancer (rs =0.374,p – value = .000) could be found. Another interesting result might be a significant moderate (positive) association between communication towers and Leukemia (rs =0.403 ,p – value = .000) and Brain cancer (rs =0.419,p – value = .000) for all counties in Sudan .Based on the analyses we have tried to predict the numbers of cancer cases for 2014 for Blue Nile State (which is maximum 105) and Khartoum State, which is maximum 17,579. Generally speaking, the findings from this study support the hypothesis that there is a correlation between cancer diseases and environmental factors. These findings might be useful for researchers and governmental agencies for risk assessment, regulations, and control of environmental contaminations.