Statistical Model for Forecasting of Nile Flooding in Sudan

Abstract

This research is dedicated to develop a model which could be used as an early warning system for the River Nile to assist the authority to prevent the risk of flooding. For this purpose data which comprises to water level for four gauge stations along the River Nile have been used. Time series analysis, in particular, exponential smoothing method was used, for forecasting the future of the phenomena we studied. Third quartile measure method has been used for the early warning, which indicated the maximum of 14 mts water level at AL- Daim station and a minimum of 13.5 mts below which we expect dry season. The same method has been applied for the other stations. The study shows that the 95% confidence interval for River Nile at AL Daim, Malakal, Atbara, Dongola