Analysis of Growth and Instability of Crop Production in Mechanized Rain-Fed Sector in Gedarif Area

Abstract

Gedarif state is the largest and oldest mechanized rain-fed farms in Sudan. The main crops produced in the state are sorghum and sesame which covered 30% and 17% of the total cultivated area in the country, respectively (Arafat, 2010). The studies is focused on weather, the extent and nature of growth that has actually taken place and examine the extent of yield variability in Gedarif consequent after to adoption of price liberalization policy period. The study cover the Pre- price liberalization policy period, i.e.1997/80 to 1991/92 and the Post- price liberalization policy period, i.e.1992/93 to 2011/2012. Analysis is based on secondary data on area, production, productivity and rainfall of sorghum and sesame ,that taken from the department of statistical and planning agriculture, ministry of agricultural, forests and irrigation, Gedarif, and Bank of Sudan. In this study applied regression model and standard to measure the growth are and the percentage of fluctuation of agricultural production and the relationship between them by using (SPSS) and (EXCELL) The findings of the study are follows : - - Change in agriculture production are due to fluctuation in productivity per feddan which influenced not only by price policies, also environmental factors such as amount and distribution of rain fall, pests, diseases and technology used in production. - Increasing fluctuation rate of agriculture production due to change in area and productivity. V - The instability in area and productivity of most crops move in the same direction, and their increasing /decreasing trend resulted in increasing /decreasing in stability. So as, it may be said that the increase in area and productivity would accompany the increase in instability also, but an increase in production to increase in productivity would help decreasing production instability. Relationship between growth and instability indicated that the increase in production due to increase in productivity had positive relationship but the increase in production due to increase in area and productivity had negative relationship between growth and instability in production of particular crop. According to these results. The study recommended: - Vertical expansion for sorghum and sesame using improving samples. - To rehabilitate the infrastructure of mechanized rain-fed in Gedarif . - The stability in production may be achieved by increasing productivity without decline in area in particular crop. -The investment in agricultural research and keeping favorable agricultural prices policies we can achieve stability in production.