A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR EDUCATIONAL PLANNING OF SUDANESE UNIVERSITIES

Abstract

Stochastic models for educational planning for Sudanese universities are designed in this thesis to analyze the efficiency of dynamic analysis of educational parameters utilized. The methodology of this study was introduced to analyze defects in the educational system at Sudanese universities. The objectives elucidated in this study are to build and use an efficient model by using Markov chains, stochastically to give education leaders a scientific tool in order to plan the inputs and outputs of the education process. Feasibly, there are different models that used the stochastic processes in education. Some these models deal with the Markov chains by utilizing spreadsheet, integrated and dynamic models. The latter models were used in this study to test to their efficiency. The model is built by formulating the transition probabilities matrix (t.p.m) that shows the students enrollments among four possible academic years with an application of the data of faculty of Commerce, Economics and Social studies at Alneelain University. The data were obtained from the records and computer archives. They were organized in tables and completed for all departments, especially for Social Studies department. From the data, a model was built and applied to each of the six departments of the faculty: Accounting, Business Administration, Economics, Insurance, Political Sciences and Social Studies. The parameters formulating the t.p.m to each department computed the students passed ratio in each level, students delay ratio, students graduates without delay according to the higher degrees of the t.p.m. The study shows the significant of the dealing model depending on the test its efficiency by using Theil’s unequal statistic and F-test which they gives a high predictive power by comparing the predictions with actual data. Lastly, from the study results, the researcher recommend to that the model is efficient and can be applied on the other education data like: teacher’s number in each department, teacher’s number according to the scientific degrees, .., etc.