The Problem Of Fertility Decline In Sudan With Kassala State As Case Study

Abstract

This study concern fertility levels and trends in Sudan. During the last three decades fertility has been declining substantially in all the developing countries. Sudan, as one of these countries has witness a rapid decline in fertility level during that period. The total fertility rate declined rapidly from 7.1 children per women in 1973 to 6.4 children in 1983 and to 4.4 children in 1993. The purpose of this study is to determine the most important factors responsible for the fertility decline in the Sudan. The importance of the study arises from the fact that fertility levels are an influential factor for population growth and policy formulation concerning social and economic development of the country. The hypotheses of the study stated that demographic and socio-economic indicators have not significant effect on fertility. A sample survey was designed and carried out to collect primary data from Kassala state in Eastern Sudan during the month of June 2005. A sample size of 392 females was calculated. The targeted population is ever-married female in the age 15 to 49 years. Kassala and Nahr Atbara provinces were selected randomly using a two-stage cluster sampling, and then 13 clusters were drawn from urban and rural areas of the two provinces. The respondents within each province were chosen using simple random sampling. The data was analyzed using descriptive statistics as well as regression analysis and dummy variables to determine the relationship between fertility and the factors that affect fertility mainly demographic and socio-economic indicators. The study provides evidence that fertility is declining in Sudan. It was found that changes in marriage pattern, more specifically increase in mean age at first marriage is one of the main causes of fertility decline. Also increases in female educational attainments as well as reduction in infant and child mortality were found to be important determinants of fertility. These findings are consistent with other studies. Although the use of contraceptives increase in Sudan contraceptive prevalence rate is still low, and the use of contraceptives have no significant effect on fertility level in Sudan. Also place of residence, that is, urban or rural areas and female participation in labor force have not significant impact on fertility. These findings were unexpected and not consistent with the findings of the previous researches. The study presents some recommendations and suggests that more socio-economic indicators, demographic indicators and physiological variables can be examined to assess its impact on fertility decline in Sudan. Also the study suggests that further researches and investigations are needed in the future for further understanding of the causes of fertility decline in Sudan.