Modeling of HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Khartoum State: Statistical Study

Abstract

The study has focused on the HIV/AIDS in Khartoum state during the period (2003-2007). Its main objective was to study the situation of HIV/AIDS in Khartoum state through a sample of 1439 of volunteers for the three selected blood testing and counseling centers in Khartoum, Omdurman, and Bahree teaching hospitals. The data of the study were collected from secondary source namely the registered information about volunteers after testing blood for HIV checking The data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics, chi-square test for dependency between demographic variables and HIV/AIDS, and logistic regression model to discover the effect of predictors variables on the dependent HIV/AIDS incidence. The infected percent is found to be very high in Khartoum center 36.0, and 33.5, 22.6 for volunteers and suspected cases respectively in Omdurman center, while the percent of infection in Bahree center is found to 14.3. Study applied Chi-square test for dependency analysis between HIV/AIDS and some of the soci-economic and demographic statements. The results revealed that, education level associated with HIV/AIDS incidence in Bahree and Khartoum centers. While social status is found to be associated with HIV/AIDS in the three centers. Study applies binary logistic regression for Khartoum state data, because it suitable the collected data and its result reports that, social status, education level, and Occupation affect HIV/AIDS in Khartoum state. The trends of the disease during 2007 have indicated that, the pandemic is at increasing rate for both sexes males and females positive although the positive cases for males were greater than females positive cases, except in one or two months. The study recommended that, there must be assessment for the current situation of the HIV/AIDS so as to construct strategic plan to stop or eradicate the spread among the people mainly adults.