Developing Malaria Early Warning System of El Obaid Area

Abstract

The aim of this study is developing early warning system for malaria epidemic in El Obaid area, malaria represent 21% from the total epidemics Sudan. This study depend on applying the detection methods which had been tested by WHO, all methods gave us the same result but we recommended 3rd upper quartile because it's the easier one for the normal and unprofessional user. We used multiple linear regressions to analysis the data and forecasting. We found that there is weak relationship represent 23% between the independences variables: maximum, minimum temperature and the rainfall and the dependence variable: number of cases. From analysis we decided that 1999 was an epidemic year. The forecasting by using linear regression is more accurate than cumulative sum method.