Using of Probit Analysis Appling on Cases of Committing Suicide

Abstract

This study attempts to figure out the uses of the probit regression model as statistic analysis of data when we have a dependent variable which has 0 or 1 outcomes and one or more independent variable(s) so to be clearer in this study we use data for people who commit suicide by poisons where their biotic data took after they arrive like blood test, liver function, kidney function….est. From the data we found dependent probability variable which is survival of the person who commit suicide or not which is dependent on many other variables the most important is liver function so minitabe for statistical analysis was suitable for this kind of data, the study analysis employed: 1. Descriptive statistics: To estimate the poisoning level for each sampling elements. 2. Fitting a probit regression model: To examine the independent association of each factor and the explanatory variables and to determine the association between the probability of all contributory factors. Verification of the goodness-of-fit of the model is conducted. The estimated percentiles, standard errors and 95% fiducial confidence intervals are conducted. The Study Hypothesis: 1. Committing suicide by poisons does not affect the lever function. 2. The liver function does not represent the main contributing factor to determine the probability of survive. V 3. Bilirubin test does not determine whether the suicidal person will survive or not. 4. Liver function does not determine whether the suicidal has a neck pain and stiffness. Results: The probit regression results showed a significant interaction between the predictor variables in each model and they meet the study hypothesis as follows:  The probit model has the ability to predict the probability of survive or not after committing suicide dependent on many other factors.  The liver function is the main contributing factor which determine if the patient will survive or not before leaving the medical system.  Bilirubin isn’t that significant for the study by the analysis.  Liver function is contributing factor which determine if the suicidal has neck stiffness. The results of this study shows the effectiveness of the probit analysis despite of its difficulty, we know that committing suicide increases each year in whole the world so if we can’t help stopping it at least let us help by prediction if the person who commits suicide will leave the system alive or otherwise by using this analysis more and more.