Spatial analysis model for Predication Case study: spread of mosquitoes that transmit Dengue fever disease in the municipalities of Jeddah Province during 2018

Abstract

The method of Geographical Information System is used in building statistical samples that work to estimate phenomena affected by the surrounding environmental factors such as mosquitoes carrying dengue fever, which has a role in putting plans for decision makers to fight such mosquitoes, and that is by knowing its distribution pattern and spatial regression method. The study aimed at examining mosquitoes carrying dengue fever reproduction patterns to assist the decision makers in Jeddah Municipality, and to know the geographical places where they concentrate inside University Municipality (the place of current study). The distribution pattern had been known in addition to the availability of spatial correlation for mosquitoes’ reproduction, in addition to build spatial model for this phenomenon inside University municipality. The study also aimed at knowing the quality of geographical information system in specifying the places and reasons of spread of mosquitoes carrying dengue fever and other similar phenomenon inside Jeddah City. Two factors had been determined as independent variables; temperature and humidity which have impact on the reproduction of mosquitoes carrying dengue fever inside the municipality. The data of average numbers of mosquitoes carrying dengue fever have been collected during the weeks (1 to 45) of the year 2018, in addition to the averages of temperature and humidity during the same period. The most important results reached that the phenomena of mosquitoes carrying dengue fever reproduction is randomly distributed. Al-Thaghr and University districts are the most districts where dengue fever mosquitoes are reproduced. The distribution pattern is not spaced (closed) and not randomly distributed. The highest determination coefficient for all estimated models for weighted spatial regression was R2 = 55%, i.e. 55% of variation occurred to mosquito reproduction can be resorted to the factors (temperature and humidity), and the rest 45% is resorted to other environmental factors such as (water tanking, sanitation, and other customs and traditions), since University municipality has various numbers of foreigners from different countries. The most important recommendation of the study is to concentrate on (University and Al-Thaghr districts) by taking many measurements to study the factors affecting the reproduction of mosquitoes carrying dengue fever to be generalized to all Jeddah municipalities. The research provides a good tool for the decision makers and assists them to determine the areas which need fighting operations more than the others.