Temporal Price Analysis of Wheat, Faba bean Dates and Garlic Crops in the Northern State, Sudan

Abstract

This study conducts temporal price analysis of wheat, faba bean, dates and garlic crops prices to identify seasonal price patterns and their expected changes over time as compared to storage costs. The analytical approach in this study was based on the so-called "classical model". The study based preliminary on the secondary data collected from Dongola wholesaler market during period 2000-2009. The study found that seasonal prices spread increased about 25% from index low to the high on average for wheat, about 21% for faba bean, 18% for dates and 63% for garlic, while the annual interest rate of the year 2009 was 10%. Thus farmers or traders who usually perform storage activity during the harvest to post harvest period will gain excess profit if they buy on the seasonal low price and sell on the seasonal high price and if they could secure storage loans. The large price differences were caused by poor market information and infrastructure, so the improvement of such fields is highly recommended.