Volume 18 No. 2https://repository.sustech.edu/handle/123456789/207122024-03-28T12:47:44Z2024-03-28T12:47:44ZUsing Lee-Carter Model to Fit and Forecast Age-Specific Mortality Rate for Colon CancerElhassan, Arwa Elsiddig ElfakiHamza, Hamza Ibrahimhttps://repository.sustech.edu/handle/123456789/211892018-07-25T10:18:46Z2017-12-01T00:00:00ZUsing Lee-Carter Model to Fit and Forecast Age-Specific Mortality Rate for Colon Cancer
Elhassan, Arwa Elsiddig Elfaki; Hamza, Hamza Ibrahim
This study was mainly focused on modeling and forecasting cancer mortality rates using standard Lee Carter Model, This model has become reference and leading statistical model for forecasting mortality. The model is applied to Colon cancer mortality data for Egyptian for both sexes ((male-female) aged from 5 to 74 years for the time period 2001-2014 and forecast mortality index by ARIMA Random Walk with Drift (0,1,0) from 2015 to 2020. The data obtained from World Health Organization (WHO).The model's parameters estimated by Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), the comparison of the two methods (SVD, MLE) based on the mean error (ME) and mean square error (MSE). The results obtained by using different statistics packages like R and Iterative Lee Carter (ilc). The results showed MLE is better to estimate the parameters (ME=0.00506, MSE=0.11065) for male, while for female the SVD is better to estimate the parameters (ME=0.00835, MSE=0.07022). The error of forecasting age-specific mortality rate was (MPE=0.30682) for male and the error of forecast age-specific cancer mortality rate (MPE=0.04833) for female. The results showed the younger ages from 5 to 13, and from 30 to 39 had lower cancer mortality rate for male, and higher age-specific cancer mortality rate was in age-group (70-74) and it was 27.91 in year 2020 (per 100,000) for male .While for female had lower age-specific cancer mortality rate in younger ages from 5 to 24 and higher age-specific cancer mortality rate in old ages especially (60-64) and it was 21.55 in year 2020 (per 100,000). The study came out with a number of recommendation, the most important were to use Lee-Carter method to modeling and forecasting age-specific mortality rate , and to have care and accuracy when registering data of died people.
2017-12-01T00:00:00ZHumidity Measurement by using Device of Humidity and Temperature Sensor (DHT11) by Microcontroller at mega 16Hammad, Mohamed Ishag MustafaKamal, Huda M.Baker, Tajedin A. Bakerhttps://repository.sustech.edu/handle/123456789/211882018-07-25T09:46:05Z2017-12-01T00:00:00ZHumidity Measurement by using Device of Humidity and Temperature Sensor (DHT11) by Microcontroller at mega 16
Hammad, Mohamed Ishag Mustafa; Kamal, Huda M.; Baker, Tajedin A. Baker
Three brick clay samples were prepared by mixing the garirh and kaolin earth with different percentages for three samples. Refractory brick components were for sample 1 (75% garirh, 25% kaolin), sample 2 (70% garirh, 30% kaolin), and sample 3 (80% garirh, 20% kaolin). Measurement of the humidity of the three samples was performed by a device assembled by the researchers. The electronic device consists of a port connected to Liquid Crystal Device (LCD) screen to display the reading of humidity inside and outside the room, and a microcontroller of 16L mega, which was programmed by the computer using the Bas com AVR program for scientists of the Netherlands (Alf and Vegard Risc prosier). The data was transferred to the electronic port, and finally two DHT11 sensors for measuring the internal and external humidity was connected. After measuring the humidity of the three samples a graph was drawn consisting of humidity versus time. Measurements were performed each hour from 6 am to 10 pm. The results were then graphically drawn, and the results of the three samples were obtained; showing high humidity in the morning, very low humidity at noon and again very high humidity in evening. By comparing the three samples of the Jazeraa and Khartoum states, the best humidity sample was the first sample which consists of (75% garirh, 25% kaolin), because the humidity was very low compared to other samples. It was found that the best sample of humidity was the first sample which consists of (75% garirh, 25% kaolin). After studying these results, the researcher recommends that in areas with high humidity brick type of the first sample, which consists of (75% garirh, 25% kaolin)
should be used
2017-12-01T00:00:00ZSelective Windows for Sudanbalal, Manahil. H.Ahmed, M. O. Sid-Elfaki, Ahmed. H.https://repository.sustech.edu/handle/123456789/211872018-07-25T09:32:33Z2017-12-01T00:00:00ZSelective Windows for Sudan
balal, Manahil. H.; Ahmed, M. O. Sid-; Elfaki, Ahmed. H.
Buildings in Sudan espouser amount of heat gain through windows, this affects the thermal comfort of buildings' occupants. The windows are needed to transmit natural light, nor heat. Rigorous coupled-wave analysis (RCWA) has been used as a simple filter to transmits most of the visible light and reflects most of the infrared radiation. The filter has been prepared by using magnetron sputtering technique at the University of Witwatersrand(Wits), South Africa. There has been very good agreement between the simulation results and the experimental results.
2017-12-01T00:00:00ZThe influence of Operational Parameters on the Photocatalytic Decolorization of Tubantin blue BRR-HC dye in pure aqueous TiO2 Suspensions.A, Yasmin A.Hamdo, S.E, Adil A.A ., Elmugdad A.https://repository.sustech.edu/handle/123456789/211862018-07-25T09:06:49Z2017-12-01T00:00:00ZThe influence of Operational Parameters on the Photocatalytic Decolorization of Tubantin blue BRR-HC dye in pure aqueous TiO2 Suspensions
.A, Yasmin A.; Hamdo, S.; E, Adil A.; A ., Elmugdad A.
Photo-catalytic decolorization of Tubantin blue BRR-HC dye was investigated using pure TiO2 anatase in aqueous suspension under solar radiation. The influence of pH solution, amount of catalyst, dye concentration, volume of 30% hydrogen peroxide and irradiation time was she died. Temperature of solution and photon flux were calculated during the experiments. Results show that the employment of efficient photo-catalyst and selection of optimal operational parameters might lead to complete decolorization
2017-12-01T00:00:00Z