Abstract:
This research is dedicated to develop a model which could
be used as an early warning system for the River Nile to assist
the authority to prevent the risk of flooding. For this purpose
data which comprises to water level for four gauge stations
along the River Nile have been used. Time series analysis, in
particular, exponential smoothing method was used, for
forecasting the future of the phenomena we studied. Third
quartile measure method has been used for the early warning,
which indicated the maximum of 14 mts water level at AL-
Daim station and a minimum of 13.5 mts below which we
expect dry season. The same method has been applied for the
other stations. The study shows that the 95% confidence interval
for River Nile at AL Daim, Malakal, Atbara, Dongola